It's their economies, stupid

Times Online reported Why are the people of Europe so angry? The standard answer, as the Germans, French and Dutch all turn against their governments, is that the European project has gone too far and that political elites have overreached themselves, losing touch with the ordinary people. Their resentment about the loss of national political control to the unaccountable Eurocrats of Brussels has finally boiled over.

Good for them figuring it out before it is too late.

The French may be voting “no” to defend their country against a European Union which they now see as a Trojan horse for ultra-liberal Anglo-Saxon values, while the Dutch (and the Danish and British) rejectionists may be driven by exactly the opposite motive, believing that the EU constitution is trying to ensnare them in a centralised, over-regulated Gallic state.

They are right. The French are upset that they are now a third rate power, and they think they can dominate the EU.

But far from discrediting the anti-EU movement, this diversity of opposition actually accounts for the power of the revolt. What people are voting against is not just one or other particular clause of the constitution, nor even its general tenor, whether this is too liberal or insufficiently so. The real bugbear is the idea of any unified constitution that attempts to impose a single system of government on the whole of Europe and purports to harmonise away the political philosophies, economic preferences and social traditions developed in different nations over hundreds of years. But before we assume that the federalists will simply give up in desperation, it is worth considering another possible explanation for the popular revolt against European elites. In Sunday’s German election, which effectively destroyed Gerhard Schröder’s Government, his recent ratification of the EU constitution was not even an issue and Europe was far from the voters’ minds. Two months earlier, the Berlusconi Government suffered a similar fate in Italy, a country where Euro-enthusiasm remains undimmed. Why did this happen? In my view, the answer is simple: it’s the economy, stupid. As regular readers of this column may be aware, I have always argued against economic determinism in British or US politics. But that is because the British and American economies have on the whole been performing well since 1992. Europe, meanwhile, has become an economic disaster.

Some parts are in worse shape than others, and each worries that those less well off will pull them down. Even West Germans are now getting upset at how after unification East Germany is dragging down the West German economy.

Dale Franks blogged Anatole Kaletsky writes that the European electorate's growing dissatisfaction with the new EU constitution—including what is looking to be a probable French "non" in a few days—may have much more to do with economic collapse than opposition to the idea of a united Europe. The Continental economies are mired in excessive regulation and taxation, and so beset with huge claims on welfare spending that they've become moribund. And as the baby-boom generation retires in just a few years, those demands on the public purse will only increase. But where will the money come from? Taxes are already ruinously high as it is, and the cost of employment so steep that job creation is effectively nil. Indeed, job creation has been that way for 25 years.

Marcus @HarrysPlace blogged Anatole Kaletsky thinks the real reason things are looking gloomy for supporters of the European Constitution in France and the Netherlands is actually the generally lamentable performance of "old" European economies over the last decade and a half.