Hurricane Katrina Predictions

Lorie Byrd blogged The following is a post written by a regular reader of this site known to those who visit the comments section as “Oak Leaf". He is an active reservist with over twenty years of service that includes both the National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve:

Having just completed twelve days of active duty in support of “Joint Task Force Katrina”, six days on the ground in NOLA and six days in assisting with pre-positioning of Federal assets, I would like to offer the following predictions:

• Mayor Ray Nagin (D) estimated that fatalities would be as high as 10,000. While it is conceivable that area wide fatalities could in theory approach 3,000, I strongly believe that fatalities in NOLA, directly attributed to Katrina will be less than one thousand, (1,000).

  That is very good news

• Pat O’Brien’s will be serving “Hurricanes” again before Thanksgiving of this year.
• The Mardi Gras Carnival Parade will go on “as scheduled” for February 28, 2006.
• Within thirty days, electricity will be restored to a majority of NOLA.
• Within thirty days, 90% of the city will by dry enough to access by civilian SUV.
• Dependent on the restoration of water/sewer service, of which I have no first hand knowledge to comment, large numbers of NOLA residents will be going home by Thanksgiving.
• Ninety percent, or more, of the residents that were displaced in NOLA will eventually return to the city in search of the now greatly expanded employment prospects in construction. However, the small percentage that does not return will change Louisiana politics permanently. Louisiana will join the rest of the “South” as a solid Republican State.
• The funds allocated by Congress will not be completely used.

While not of a predictive nature, I would like to offer a few more thoughts. The unofficial motto of the Infantry is “Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way.” The elected local politicians in Louisiana are not “leaders” and should have stepped aside. You do not elect a “leader”, a “leader” is developed over time and experience. In spite of herself, Gov. Blanco had significant military assets available to her, of which she had little knowledge to effectively utilize. The people of Louisiana would have been better served had the Governor ceded control to one of the many Platoon Sergeants in the Louisiana Army National Guard that she commands. In six days in NOLA I have seen ignorance, paralysis and blatant/shameless corruption, ALL at the “local” level of government. Should the Congress pursue an “investigation” or appoint a Commission, I would pray that the members are not current/former Louisiana politicians or family members.

I agree completely. To do otherwise would be as stupid as having Jamie S.Gorelick on the 9/11 Commision

The military term FUBAR is an apt description of the “emergency management plan execution” by the NOLA Mayor, the NOLA Police Department, the LA Governor and all of their emergency management appointees. I look forward to getting home this weekend.

Much thanks to Oak Leaf for this and his earlier post from Louisiana. If you missed the earlier post, “Civil Defense or Lawfare?", please read it here.