Friday, August 25, 2006

Iran nuclear response leak reveals demands

The Guardian reported The US would have to lift decades-old sanctions against Iran and probably give assurances that it has no policy of regime change towards the Islamic republic to settle Iran's nuclear dispute with the west, according to leaks of the Iranian response.

And what would happen if we were foolish enough to do that? Listen to even more demands.
Iran is demanding firmer guarantees on trade and nuclear supplies, a tighter timetable for implementing agreements and clearer security pledges from the west before it decides whether to freeze its uranium enrichment programme and explore an offer of a new relationship.
Stop first. Then we will talk.
Details of its response delivered this week to diplomats, disclosed yesterday by two well-connected Iranian political scientists, claimed moderates in Tehran had won an important power struggle and were offering a negotiated settlement of the nuclear row.
Let those "moderates" show us that the nutcase president that wants to destroy Israel is no longer in power. Bring me the head of Ahmadinejad on a silver platter.
If the US spurns the Iranian olive branch and forces through sanctions from the UN security council, "the stage will be set for a full-scale international crisis", the response's authors stated.
They don't sound that moderate to me.
Under the terms of a UN resolution the Iranians have until Thursday to freeze all uranium enrichment activities or face the prospect of sanctions. The same day the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammed ElBaradei, is to tell the security council that Iran has not suspended uranium enrichment. He is also likely to report additional frustrations in the agency's effort to penetrate the details of Iran's nuclear programmes.

CQ blogged For those who have studied the coordinated diplomacy of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy in the late 1930s, this sounds depressingly familiar. Some people compared UNSCR 1701 to Munich, but this is much closer to that infamous Western collapse. In 1938, Britain and France rushed to dismember Czechoslovakia -- a democracy with highly defendable borders -- in order to assist the "moderate" Mussolini in appeasing the radical Hitler and keep him from waging war. Italy got what it wanted by appearing to be a rational actor, while Hitler got the Sudetenland and the most formidable natural defensive barrier in central Europe.

This sounds almost exactly the same, even playing on the West's analysis of Iran as two separate entities. The mullahs and the hard-line Islamists comprise one portion of the Iranian ruling class, while men like Mohammed Khatami supposedly offer a more reasonable partner for negotiations. It's hogwash. The ruling class in Teheran all share the same goals: an Islamist Caliphate in Southwest Asia with its seat in Teheran. Some of them just happen to have a better sense of Western public relations than Ali Khameini and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but that does not make them more rational or less supportive of Islamist triumphalism.

The Iranian leak is part of a calculated strategy to force the UN Security Council into retreat on its demands and into negotiations on Iranian terms. They use media outlets like The Guardian to "warn" of betraying these supposed moderates by not surrendering to their oh-so-reasonable demands. Hitler made this an art form, and Ahmadinejad has learned well from his example.


Allah Pundit blogged A pair of Iranian political scientists apparently leaked details of the regime’s counterproposal on the nuclear program today. I remember when Condi Rice first announced that we were going to negotiate with them, but only on the limited issue of nukes; there would be no “grand bargain.” Well, according to the good professors, what Iran wants is … a grand bargain. And even so, only as a precondition for talks. European diplomats think it’s yet another stalling tactic; Merkel has already responded. Goldstein cites an Iranian report via MEMRI that Ahmadinejad will be announcing Iran’s “nuclear birth” within the next few days, which could be the “surprise” they were promising yesterday.

A former Israeli NSA says that if Ahmadinejad succeeds Khamenei as Supreme Leader, he’ll go Greg Stillson on Israel. Hard to believe the mullahs would elect a non-cleric to the top spot, particularly one whose unpopular at home and liable to threaten their own position of power by initiating a nuclear exchange. But then, I was never NSA of Israel.

1 comment:

Owlb said...

Ahmadi-Nejad steams & nukes his way to world domination for Islamofascist religious ideology

By Albert Gedraitis, 30 Endean Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4M1W6
Phone/fax: 416-461-5975; E-mail: owlbird@sympatico.ca; owlhoot@mac.com
Check out my Anti-Islamofascist Blog: http://refwritepage1.blogspot.com/

The deadline Iran gave itself to make a major announcement on its nuke has come and gone with 0nly a 20-page technical document of non-compliance to the UN requirement that it stop processing unranium. This development is stark evidence of the Iranian imperialistic goal to establish itself as a new Muslim caliphate: Shi'ite and mullocratic. The nukes under development will underwrite Iran's first colony in Hizbullite Lebanon and undermine the development of a democratic order there. While Iran spends millions in Lebanon it is squeezing its own poor and clamping down on dissident voices, the goal is total control over information and opinion within the country. With the prospect of Iran playing the games of diplomatic discouse at the UNSC, the full unveiling of its colony for what it is, snugly embedded in Lebanon among that country's Shi'ites, blocking its own populace from communicating outside the regime's purview, capable of sending agents into Canada among returning dual citizens from Southern Lebanon and into the USA itself, and now giving the appearance of responding to the appeal of its client (oil) and ally (diplomacy, munitions) China. Previously Iran used the Hizbullah War for 34 days to distract the world from its nuclear project, now it will use the UNSC talks on uranium and nukes to distract the world from its aggressive activities to rebuild, refortify and re-weaponize the Hizbullah colonials.
Altho there's no knowing how long he will last, in public at least, the man at the helm of Iran gives a public-face to the apocalypticism unique to Persian Shia Islam which may be playing a key role in the multifront campaign to gain the leadership of Muslims worldwide and establish Iran at the hub of a new world empire. The man, whose name in English is widely rendered Ahmadinejad, should better be spelled Ahmadi-Nejad to bring out the crucial term "Ahmadi" which plays a large role in the Presidenct's apocalypticism.
No one can accuse Ahmadinejad of being circumspect about the religious views that shape his worldview. He speaks on those views quite frequently, but they are a taboo subject for Westerners unaccustomed to thinking that is self-consciously religious. The reactionary response is to dismiss it as mental instability or label it as “fundamentalist”, but facing the reality of a nuclear Iran, such a reaction is not only short-sighted and narrow minded, but possibly suicidal. Ahmadinejad’s worldview is shaped by the radical Hojjatieh Shiism that is best represented by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the Iranian President’s ideological mentor and marja-e taqlid (object of emulation), of the popular Haqqani religious school located in Qom. The affection seems to be mutual: in the 2k5 Iranian presidential campaign, Ayatollah Yazdi issued a fatwa calling on his supporters to vote for Ahmadinejad.

Rooted in the Shiite ideology of martyrdom and violence, the Hojjatieh sect adds messianic and apocalyptic elements to an already volatile theology. They believe that chaos and bloodshed must precede the return of the 12th Imam, called the Mahdi. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has clearly indicated that he is a true believer in this faith. It has been reported that he has told confidants that he anticipates the immanent return of the Mahdi. When he previously served as Mayor of Tehran, he advocated for widening the roads to accommodate the Mahdi’s triumphal entry into the city. One of his first acts of office as President was to dedicate approximately $20 million to the restoration and improvement of the mosque at Jamkaran, where the Mahdi is claimed to dwell.
This personal belief directs his official policies as President. He has publicly said, “Our revolution’s main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi. We should define our economic, cultural and political policies on the policy of the Imam Mahdi’s return.”

However, Ahmadinejad’s messianism doesn’t stop with the Mahdi. In fact, he has made it clear that he believes he has personally received a divine appointment to herald the imminent arrival of the Mahdi, tacitly acknowledging his own role in setting aright the problems of the world. His belief in a personal divine appointment was best confirmed after his speech to the United Nations last September, which was laden with references to the Mahdi. In the recent war between Israel and Hezbollah, Ahmadi-Nejad and the entire Iranian leadership have stood firmly behind Hezbollah. However, the Iranian public seems wary of a confrontation with Israel and is questioning the wisdom of spending the nation's oil revenues in Lebanon when they are needed at home. Should Iran become embroiled in a further outbreak of fighting, Lebanon may become a domestic political liability.

If the nuclear confrontation with the West does not escalate, Ahmadi-Nejad's ability to project himself as Iran's national champion will diminish. His populist economic policies are unlikely to reduce inflation and unemployment, and they could make life more difficult for the working-class Iranians he claims to represent. He may increasingly be seen as a liability by Khamenei, who may move to sideline him. However much the Hizbullah War may have stirred temporarily Arab and Muslim rejoicing among the masses, Sunni-dominated Arab states instead saw threates to civic order and societal instablity in the Hizbullah adventurism. What, incredibly, this lacks is any sense of the inter-relationship between the threat in the Iranian colony, the threat of Iranian nuclear weaponization, and the Iranian imperialist ideology which threatens even without the glosses of the Hojjatieh sect and Iranian President Ahmadi-Neejad's personal sense of an apocalyptic vocation. I feel all these matters matter to the Sunni royals and other political leaders.

-- Politicarp