O'Connor, Not Rehnquist?

William Kristol wrote in Weekly Standard But it is speculation.

1. There will be a Supreme Court resignation within the next week. But it will be Justice O'Connor, not Chief Justice Rehnquist. There are several tea-leaf-like suggestions that O'Connor may be stepping down, including the fact that she has apparently arranged to spend much more time in Arizona beginning this fall. There are also recent intimations that Chief Justice Rehnquist may not resign. This would be consistent with Justice O'Connor having confided her plan to step down to the chief a while ago. Rehnquist probably believes that it wouldn't be good for the Court to have two resignations at once, so he would presumably stay on for as long as his health permits, and/or until after Justice O'Connor's replacement is confirmed.
2. President Bush will appoint Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to replace O'Connor. Bush certainly wants to put Gonzales on the Supreme Court. Presidents usually find a way to do what they want to do.

And his aides will have an argument to make to conservatives (like me) who would be unhappy with a Gonzales pick: Bush would not, after all, be replacing a conservative stalwart like Rehnquist with Gonzales. Gonzales would be taking O'Connor's seat, and Gonzales is likely to be as conservative as, or even more conservative than, O'Connor. Indeed, Karl Rove will continue, Gonzales is as conservative a nominee to replace O'Connor as one could find who could overcome a threatened Democratic filibuster. Bush aides will also assure us privately that when Rehnquist does step down, Bush will nominate a strong conservative as his replacement. They might not tell us that nominee would be as an associate justice, for Bush would plan to then promote Gonzales to chief justice--thus creating a "Gonzales Court," a truly distinctive Bush legacy. A Gonzales nomination would, in my view, virtually forfeit any chance in the near term for a fundamental reversal in the downward drift of American constitutional jurisprudence. But I now think it is more likely than not to happen.

Dr. Steven Taylor blogged He has O’Connor retiring before Rehnquist, Bush appointing Gonzalez and then, eventually elevating Gonzalez to the CJ position and appointing a conservative to replace Rehnquist. As parlor games go, all fun and all, I suppose, but given the great difficulty that exists in making such predictions, I have some doubts, shall we say. For one thing, I am not as convinced as Kristol is that Gonzales can be confirmed. If he were to go up, it would be Abu Ghraib revisited, not to mention with the current political climate on Gitmo, that, too, would be a huge issue. Somehow I don’t see it happening as Kristol predicts. On a side note: this is not the first place I have read that Rehnquist might not retire as predicted. I certainly hope that that is not the case, given that the man’s health precluded him from even being present much of this sesson of the Court. He’s been there over thirty years and this year is the best year for a retirement, in terms of the electoral cycle. Surely, surely he will step down. We shall see, of course.

John Hawkins blogged If O'Connor were to resign, that would obviously be great news because it would give Bush the opportunity to appoint at least two conservative justices to the SCOTUS. However, whether Bush likes him or not, it would be a huge mistake to nominate someone like Alberto Gonzales who's so moderate that a Gonzales for O'Connor swap would be considered by the base to be a wash.

James Joyner blogged As I argued Sunday, Gonzales would be rather thin gruel indeed for Republicans as a Rehnquist replacement but would be about right in case of an O'Connor or other more moderate justice leaving. Interesting speculation, at any rate.

Hugh Hewitt blogged Bill Kristol writes that he hears it will be O'Connor stepping down next week, not the Chief, and that the Attorney General will be her replacement.

Nathan Hallford, blogged Kristol goes on to explain the argument for such scenario is that Gonzales would be no-less conservative than O'Connor; the battle over confirmation wouldn't be too ugly and when the time came for Rehnquist to step down, a stalwart conservative could be nominated.

John Podhoretz blogged Over at the Daily Standard, Bill Kristol offers some front-page SCOTUS news if he's got it right: O'Connor's retiring, not Rhenquist, which will make it easier for the prez to name Al Gonzales (a moderate for a moderate).

John Cole blogged Well, I have to admit. That is not who I thought would retire

I have always assumed he would submit Gonzales for O'Conner, so if she retires first this makes sense. It does not make sense to advance him to CJ when Rhenquist does retire.