Review Votes

NYT reported Iraqi election officials said Monday that they were investigating "unusually high" vote totals in 12 Shiite and Kurdish provinces, where as many as 99 percent of the voters were reported to have cast ballots in favor of Iraq's new constitution. The investigation raised the possibility that the results of the referendum could be called into question. In a statement on Monday evening, the Independent Election Commission of Iraq said the results of the referendum on Saturday would have to be delayed "a few days" because the apparently high number of "yes" votes required election workers to "recheck, compare and audit" the results.

I think it is good they are rechecking results, but I dont find such a large margin hard to believe, particularly in Kurdish or Shiite areas

The statement made no mention of the possibility of fraud, but said results were being re-examined to comply with internationally accepted standards. Election officials say that under those standards, voting procedures should be re-examined anytime a candidate or a ballot question got more than 90 percent of the vote. Members of the commission declined to give any details. But one official with knowledge of the balloting said the 12 provinces where the "yes" votes exceeded 90 percent all had populations that were majority Shiite or Kurdish. Leaders from those communities strongly endorsed the proposed constitution.

Dr. Steven Taylor blogged That’s pretty darn high, to put it mildly. However, if there is anywhere in the country where 99% rates would seem to be possible, it would be in the Kurdish regions.

OTB blogged The figures do strike me as unusually high and certainly merit investigation. It wouldn't shock me if there were some ballot stuffing, given Iraq's history of sham elections. Still, there was never much doubt that the referendum would draw overwhelming support in the Shia and Kurish regions and get a majority overall; the only question was whether there would be a sufficient number of Sunni provinces voting against to kill it anyway. Election fraud would certainly taint the process but it seems unlikely to have altered the outcome.

Rob blogged I have a hard time believing that the constitution didn’t pass, irregularities or not. The majority Shiites and Kurds heavily supported its passage. In a democracy the majority, for the most part, calls the shots. The Sunnis will just have to come to terms with that. Which is something that is going to be even harder for them given their past “most favored” status under Saddam Hussein.