Iraqi Democracy

NYT reports Top Shiite Cleric Hints at Wider Voting Role for Sunnis

Iraq's most powerful Shiite cleric appeared to offer a major concession to the Sunni Arab minority on Monday when he indicated that he would support changes in the voting system that would probably give Sunnis more seats in the future parliament. In a meeting with a group of Sunni and Shiite leaders, the cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, outlined a proposal that would scrap the system used in the January election, according to a secular Shiite political leader, Abdul Aziz al-Yasiri, who was at the meeting. The election had a huge turnout by Shiites and Kurds but was mostly boycotted by Sunni Arabs. Such a change would need to be written into Iraq's new constitution, which parliamentarians are drafting for an Aug. 15 deadline. Although there has been little public talk about what form elections might take under the constitution, Ayatollah Sistani has been highly influential in Iraq's nascent political system. Under the proposal, voters in national elections would select leaders from each of the 19 provinces instead of choosing from a single country-wide list, as they did in January. The new system would essentially set aside a number of seats for Sunnis roughly proportionate to their numbers in the population, ensuring that no matter how low the Sunni turnout, they would be guaranteed seats. Sunni Arabs welcomed news of the suggestion. "This should have been done from the beginning," said Saleh Mutlak, a member of the National Dialogue Council, a Sunni Arab political group that has pressed for a more active role in politics. "That election was wrong."

You should not have boycotted the election, or you would have gotten more seats.

The January elections ended in a decisive victory for Shiite Arabs and Kurds, leaving just 17 seats for Sunni Arabs in the 275-seat National Assembly. Voting in largely Sunni areas was extremely low, depressed by threats from insurgent groups who opposed the election. Iraqi and American officials say feelings of disenfranchisement among the Sunni Arabs, who ruled Iraq for decades, may be fueling the insurgency. The violence has cut deeply into Iraqi society, with about 1,200 Iraqis and more than 75 American soldiers killed in the past two months. The attacks have taken on increasingly sectarian overtones, raising fears that Iraq could be headed toward civil war.

Captain Ed blogged In another sign that the Iraqis continue to adapt quickly to democratic politics, the spiritual leader of the Shi'a in Iraq gave his blessing to a major concession to his rival Sunnis that could result in greater representation for the former ruling minority in Parliament. That promises to create less tension over the development of the new Iraqi constitution and create serious momentum for the scheduled December elections.

I hope it will persuade the Sunnis to support the new constitution, and does not discourage the Kurds from supporting it.

The change creates a more federalized system, one that benefits not just the Sunnis but also the Kurds, depending on where the boundaries are drawn.

I believe the province lines are already drawn, but there are some major cities in the Kurdish area that this may cause them to try to push out some Sunnis.

The numbers won't be proportionate to population as such, but more to the provinces that each have as majorities. Once the federal government has established its constitution and electoral procedures, the provinces will create their own electoral governments, giving the ethnic and religious factions even more stability and incentive to work within the system.

This continues the careful politics of Ayatollah Sistani, the Najaf-educated cleric who professes the "quietism" of that school of Shi'ite Islam. His vision of Islam focuses on the spiritual rather than the temporal; his vision of government is one guided by the precepts of Islam but not run by clerics. In that regard, and given the history of religious repression by the Ba'athists, Sistani wants to ensure that the Shi'ite majority get its chance to run Iraq but that the Sunnis and Kurds have enough power to keep the country from falling into chaos.

In fact, while Sistani objected to the previous system of nationwide candidate lists, he allowed them to go forward when the United Nations insisted that any other system could not be implemented quickly enough for the January elections. That system effectively cut out the Sunnis, who boycotted in large numbers but would have won more seats in the central provinces had a federal system been in place. That decision has led to some of the resentment even among those Sunni who did participate. However, the more important objective -- that Iraq will convert to democracy despite minority obstructionism and violence -- has been made.

The progress in negotiations should energize the Sunni moderates into committing completely to the political process, putting even more pressure on their more radical brethren to admit defeat and lay down their arms. It shows the progress being made in Iraq and that the momentum still rolls towards democratization and freedom -- as long as we give the brave Iraqis the support they need to realize their goals.

Justin Delabar blogged The New York Times is reporting that Shi'ite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is suggesting Iraq's new constitution allow for proportional parliamentary representation. In effect, this would guarantee Iraq's Sunni population a set number of seats regardless of voter turnout in the next election. The only issue is that the Kurds, who are concerned over oil-rich Kirkuk and their future autonomy, may view the deal as a threat. I look at the numbers and explain why, which is important to take into account considering the Kurds hold veto power over the new constitution.

But the Sunnis also hold veto power over the new constitution