A Neo-Conservative's Caution

In A Neo-Conservative's Caution Daniel Pipes cautions Having been trained in Middle Eastern history makes me perhaps more aware of what can go wrong:

• Yes, Mahmoud Abbas wishes to end the armed struggle against Israel but his call for a greater jihad against the "Zionist enemy" points to his intending another form of war to destroy Israel.
  He may well plan to declare war on Israel once he gets an independent state, but Israel seemed to do a pretty good job in the 6 day war against Egypt, Jordan and Syria, all receiving support from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Algeria, and in 132 hours and 30 minutes (less than 6 days) they won. Should the new state declare war on Israel, I suspect they can do as well again, and this time rather than just occupying the territory, hopefully they will enlarge the state of Israel to cover the entire area, and let the arabs go live permanently in other Arab countries.
  
• The Iraqi elections are bringing Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a pro-Iranian Islamist, to power.
  I believe he has made it clear that he wants a secular state, and since he does not control two thirds of the population I doubt the others would allow him to set up a theocracy even if he wanted to
  
• Likewise, the Saudi elections proved a boon for the Islamist candidates.
  If they let the women vote in the next election, as they have said they will, I suspect reason will prevail
  
• Mubarak's promise is purely cosmetic; but should real presidential elections one day come to Egypt, Islamists will probably prevail there too.
  Perhaps, but perhaps not
  
• Removing Syrian control in Lebanon could well lead to Hezbollah, a terrorist group, becoming the dominant power there.
  Perhaps, but it could also lead to Hesbollah transitioning from being a terrorist group to being a political party that needed to focus more on helping the people to be sure they stayed in power
  
• Eliminating the hideous Assad dynasty could well bring in its wake an Islamist government in Damascus.
  Perhaps, but is an Islamic government worse than a Thugocracy?

Hat tip to LGF