Why Iran's clerics fear this election

Guardian reported It is one of the paradoxes of the modern Middle East that a higher percentage of people attends Friday prayers in Turkey, an avowedly secular state, than in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In a secular state with freedom of religion, the people are free to choose. In a theoracy, where one particular faith controls, people want a freedom from religion, and once they get that, then they will be free to select the religion they want.

By the same token, voters in Turkey's last election gave most support to an Islamist party, while in Iran - where people choose a new president today - Islam has not featured in the campaign, whether in posters, leaflets, or speeches. At one level the paradox is easily explained. Any state that pushes an ideology too harshly, whether it is secularism, atheism or a particular religion, is likely to build resistance.

Precisely.

Equally, if a state is failing its citizens on several fronts, for example by allowing mass unemployment and social and economic insecurity to grow, or by severely restricting human rights, their instinctive need to protest will find an outlet in abstaining from the publicly decreed norms: by flocking to mosques and churches in a secular state, or by dropping out in a religious one. Of course, political trends are not just a simple process of action and reaction, and all societies have their subtleties. In Iran the issue is twofold. After 26 years the Islamic revolution has lost its moral and social fervour. Secondly, there is a growing disconnect between directly elected bodies, such as the parliament and president, and the religious leadership, which not only appoints itself but controls the military and judiciary and has the constitutional right to veto decisions of elected institutions. The debate over this divergence of interests is couched in terms of democracy. It is not an argument over Islam. Mohammed Khatami, the outgoing president, spent eight years fitfully trying to persuade his fellow clerics to change the system, but with no result. Today's election centres on whether his successor will want, and be able, to do better. Few can complain there is no choice, at least (a big caveat) among male candidates - women were barred from running. The eight men range from reformers to conservatives, which means the electoral options are wider than in any Arab country, including Iraq. Washington's democracy-promoters should focus their attentions on Saudi Arabia and Tunisia, rather than Iran.

Attention should be great in both areas.